Development of integrated multi-scale scenarios
Working with decision-makers, integrated high-end climate and socio-economic scenarios will be developed at three scales: global, European, and local/regional (for the three case study areas in Scotland, Hungary and Iberia). The scenarios will be consistent with each other: the global scenario will set the boundary conditions for the European scenario, which in turn will feed into the local/regional scenarios. The scenarios will incorporate crucial climate and socio-economic tipping points, such as ice sheet collapse or migration of climate refugees.
Objectives
- To evaluate and compare existing climate and socio-economic scenarios in each of the case study areas to inform how the IMPRESSIONS scenarios could build on existing material;
- To design methods for the development of climate scenarios at various scales which include those relevant to policy targets (e.g. 2°C and 3°C), and intermediate and high-end projections (e.g. 4°C and above);
- To design methods for the participatory development of multi-scale socio-economic scenarios which enable the inclusion of more extreme and/or more contrasting socio-economic futures;
- To analyse and synthesise the multi-scale climate and socio-economic scenarios to create a set of integrated scenarios focusing on extreme futures which combine strong climate change and high societal challenges (and their non-linear interactions) and embed a number of crucial tipping points.
Further information on each research area is provided through the following links:
Innovative and effective decision-making under uncertainty
Development of integrated multi-scale scenarios
Advancement of climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability (CCIAV) methods and models
Development of adaptation and mitigation pathways
Risks, opportunities, costs and benefits of adaptation and mitigation